2015 gold market or will usher in a new turning point
judging from the effect of monetary policy on gold, with the exception of United States economic strength outside the expected rate hike, Europe constantly loose to boost the economy, Japan is expanding quantitative easing, China announced interest rate cuts, large amounts of money pouring into the market, in the promotion of economic development, but also created a bubble, which also pushed gold higher. Although the United States economy is relatively independent, but the rest of the problems will affect the United States economy. In addition, the Fed's monetary tightening policy sooner or later and higher-than-expected interest rate cut stock and bond prices rose road, more and more investors will come back to gold market.
2015 years before the Fed rate hikes, will have a negative impact on gold, expect the price of gold fell to near us $ 1100/oz. But the Central Bank actually raised rates, good for gold, gold market pressures will dissipate.
from the view of supply and demand, the world's top two consumer powers – China, India--never-ending demand for gold and other Asian markets. No matter how the economic performance in these areas, investors will continue to buy gold in the area. In 2014, China and India is expected to buy more than 2000 tons of gold. In 2015, this number is likely to increase, since India has relaxed import restrictions in late 2014, while China's economy might fall into a lower growth trajectory. JPMorgan Chase analysts said in the Vision 2015, physical buying increased (especially in India and China) should be supported gold prices because pressing consumers continue to take advantage of the drop in prices to buy.
banks in the third quarter of 2014 accumulated 93 tonnes of gold. This is the 15th consecutive quarter of global central banks become net buyers of gold. Year to date, total, central banks around the world bought 335 tonnes of gold, compared to 324 tons in the corresponding period last year. The driving factor behind this, including: reserves of central banks to continue to promote the diversification of holdings of dollar assets, as well as the background of ongoing geopolitical crisis. In the short run, banks demand emerged will give gold rebounded to a strong boost. Another problem is that at this stage of gold reserve requirements, the Central Bank is developing countries ' central banks, and these emerging markets where growth has slowed, gold reserves is difficult to respond quickly to changes in current account balances reflected. Therefore, in the long run, this trend of demand does not determine the price of gold can only be accompanied by the release of some key messages play a contributory role.
from a geopolitical point of view, is expected next year, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, especially in the case of the fall in oil prices, with banks and companies might face a new wave of defaults, which will make the balance sheet risks faced in some countries, since the stress tests did not take into account the situation of those countries, the result is not known, will likely push the gold rally.
December 23 of Goldman Sachs report noted that crude oil (53.71,-0.2,-0.37%) overall market experts forecast in 2014, after the crash, prices will begin to rise, Brent in 2015, oil prices rose to $ 85 a barrel. The Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters shows consistent results, they generally agreed that Brent oil prices at the end of 2015 up 35%, to $ 82 per barrel. From a technical standpoint, crude oil prices are close to a bottom, after repeated will usher in a rebound after bottoming.
for gold mining companies of the world, the theme for 2014 is still cutting costs. All these enterprises maintain cost $ 627 per ounce to $ 1246 per ounce, most production costs $ 1100/oz. Today's gold prices are still quite a few mining companies in a State of loss. This shows that gold is unlikely to fall sharply, because if the price of gold fell below $ 1100 an ounce, some miners have stopped production, leading to reduced supply to provide Gold Rally conditions. In addition, the gold exchange-traded fund outflow in 2014, to slow down, illustrates the problem.
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